Gold bullion is like children – unpredictable. You never know with what inconsistent action the yellow metal is going to catch you next, making it notoriously difficult to predict the short-term price movements. Many traders have, to their detriment, seen their pockets being emptied as a result of unwelcome margin calls over the years.
In my experience the best that most of us can hope to do is to attempt to assess the primary direction of the gold price, and ride the big waves. It was precisely this “big picture” framework that I tried to get a grip on in last week’s article on bullion.
My conclusion was that “bullion was experiencing a normal bull market reprise, and was set to resume its upward path in due course albeit in fits and starts. The exact tailwind pushing gold northwards would probably only become apparent after the fact.”
One such tailwind could be the oil price, which I believe is experiencing a multi-year bull market. I base this outlook on the simple premise of rising demand meeting inelastic supply. In other words, it could become increasingly difficult for the continuously growing demand from the new economic power houses to be met by the rather problematic supply situation, characterized by geopolitical risks in unison with reduced reserves.
It is particularly interesting to see how the oil price typically behaves from July to October – traditionally a period characterized by rising prices as more cars hit the road for the summer months.Source : biz.yahoo.com
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